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银河证券左小蕾:中国不会重蹈越南覆辙

作者: 来源:网络文章 时间:2008-11-22 阅读: 30352

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  金融界网站6月13日讯 21世纪金融理财论坛今天在北京国宾酒店举行,银河证券首席经济学家左小蕾在会议上发表主题演讲。左小蕾表示,相对于越南,中国提前做了很好的机制性调整,我们出口产业的结构大规模的调整,最近的政策效率也非常明显。这对加大经济的灵活性起了非常重要的作用。中国可以避免类似的经济危机。

  左小蕾称,我们的资产价格泡沫提前调整了。泰国当时危机的时候,就是恐慌性的外逃,马上把所有资产泡沫打破。像日本当年也是这样的,一年之内掉了80%。第二,通货膨胀,中国政府从去年开始综合性综合了政策,非常大的控制在合理范围之内。两防是今年宏观调控的目标,这是非常重要的。第三就是汇率机制的调整,这一次让经济体制,整个出口产业的结构,在综合性政策的影响下,加大了它的弹性。开放和经济体制的调整能力如果是匹配的话,这个问题不大,那经济是非常健康的,也是非常有调整能力的。但是,如果像越南这次的问题,越南学中国这一点就没有学到,开放得太快,它的经济体制,它的银行体系根本匹配不了这么大的开放程度,所以就引进危机了,泰国当时也是这样的。但是中国提前做了很好的机制性调整,我们出口产业的结构大规模的调整,最近的政策效率也非常明显。我觉得这对加大经济的灵活性起了非常重要的作用。第四,我们很有利的条件,就是我们遭遇了次贷的危机这样大不确定因素,我们也遭遇到国内大风雪和大地震百年不遇的灾难,在这么大不确定因素,这么大冲击性的影响下,中国经济保持了稳定增长。这都是一个经济的稳定,可以从容的应对所有突发事件和危机。包括国际上的危机影响,所以一句话,我是巍然不动,这是毛主席的一句话。我们有地域能力,但是我们要做好充分的准备,我们不能犯错误。我们要在这里面独善其身,一定要有有效的应急措施。

  左小蕾认为,从长期来说我们可能要进一步加强内部经济结构的调整,加上增长模式转移等等的事情,但是对外来说目前我们真的需要一些非常充分的准备。只要我们把政策把握的得当,我们同样像地震灾害一样,我们能够取得抗震救灾的成功,我们同样也可以在一个更开放的体制下采一次的避开经济危机。

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Galaxy Securities left Xiao-Lei: China will not repeat the Vietnam mistake

Finance site on June 13 - the 21st century financial forum in Beijing today fiscal State Guest Hotel, Galaxy Securities chief economist Xiao-Lei left in a keynote address at the meeting. Left Xiao-Lei said that compared to Vietnam, China advance to do a good adjustment mechanism, the structure of our export industries of large-scale adjustment, the efficiency of the recent policy is also very obvious. This increase the flexibility of the economy played a very important role. China can avoid a similar economic crisis.
Left Xiao-Lei said, the asset price bubble in advance of the adjustment. Thailand was a time of crisis, is the panic of flight, immediately all the asset bubble break. This is like Japan's, within a year dropped 80 percent. Second, inflation, the Chinese government last year began a comprehensive integrated policy, a very big control at a reasonable range. Two-year macroeconomic regulation and control is the goal, which is very important. The third is the adjustment of the exchange rate mechanism, this time of economic structure, the structure of the entire export industries, in a comprehensive policy under the influence, increase its flexibility. Opening up and economic system if the adjustment is the ability to match, this little problem, and that the economy is very healthy, and it is very adjustment ability. However, if this problem like Vietnam, the Vietnamese in China has not learned this point on, opening up too quickly, its economic system, its banking system simply can not match such a great degree of openness, so the introduction of the crisis, Thailand At that time, is also the case. However, China advance to do a good adjustment mechanism, the structure of our export industries of large-scale adjustment, the efficiency of the recent policy is also very obvious. I think this is the increased flexibility of the economy played a very important role. Fourth, we are very favourable conditions that we experienced, loan-to-the crisis of such a large uncertainty, we also encountered a storm of domestic and rare earthquake disaster in such a great uncertainties, such a big impact on the impact of , China's economy maintained a steady growth. This is an economic stability, could easily deal with all emergencies and crises. Including the international impact of the crisis, saying, I was not moving Weiran, this is Chairman Mao's words. We have regional capabilities, but we must make full preparations, we can not make mistakes. We must in this inside exception, there must be an effective emergency measures.

Xiao-Lei left that in the long term, we may have to further strengthen the internal economic restructuring, coupled with the growth mode of transfer of such things, but external, we really need some very well prepared. As long as we adhere to the policy properly, we also like the earthquake disaster, we can achieve the success of earthquake relief, we can also in a more open system of mining to avoid a financial crisis.
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