根据WIND资讯统计，按照整体法计算（剔除负值，数据为07年年报），上证综指6124点时对应的A股市场整体市盈率为44倍左右。而截至昨日收盘，整体市场的市盈率已经降至19倍左右（整体法，剔除负值，数据为今年一季报）。那么这个数值究竟是不是一个“底”呢？从券商的策略报告中我们很难看到确切的答案，尽管“合理”一词频繁出现，但在当前纷繁复杂的股市大环境前，机构们似乎也陷入了“困境”。
19倍究竟合不合理？
市盈率是目前市场上判断估值水平时用的最多的一个指标。中金公司明确表示，基于对A股市场中长期盈利和资本回报率的假设，认为A股长期的合理市盈率为20倍左右的水平。但是在经济下行周期中，投资者对未来短期的盈利增长预期回落，而且对风险会要求更高的回报率要求，使得股市的合理估值中枢下移。
中金公司进一步指出，在经济软着陆预期下，当前的市场估值（一年期动态市盈率16倍）水平下行的空间比较有限。近期能源价格上调以及未来可能采取的进一步理顺能源价格的措施，有利于能源使用效率的提高和长期通胀预期的下降，政府以短期通胀压力和经济加速放缓为代价，使得经济硬着陆的风险大大降低，对中国经济的长期增长潜力和市场稳定有利。只要经济不出现硬着陆，从利润占比大的主要行业（石油石化、银行等）趋势看，A股整体盈利在09年转为负增长的可能性较小。
上海证券则表达了相对谨慎的态度：目前2008年20倍PE属于新兴市场的相对合理水平，但未到显著低估阶段。成熟市场国家08年平均PE为13.6倍（不包括纳斯达克），新兴市场国家平均PE为15倍，金砖四国除中国外平均PE为13.8倍，印度为16倍，中国为20倍，A股市场与成熟市场的平均溢价为32％，与新兴市场的平均溢价为28%。研究员对这个28％的解释是：A股上市公司盈利增长对经济增长具有更高的敏感性，经济增速的小幅回落可能意味着利润增速更快的回落，下半年A股成长性溢价由此可能受到侵蚀。从成熟市场过去的发展历程来看，上市公司真正盈利增速下滑趋势均在通胀见顶回落以后，因此短期内我们可能还无法明确预期A股的“估值底部”。
估值水平有无提高可能
虽然有机构认为不排除估值水平继续下降的可能，但20倍左右的水平仍然被认为是相对合理的。预期的下降导致估值水平的回落，那么在股指大幅下跌并一度最低跌至2566点后，预期有无改变的可能？
对于这个问题，东方证券保持了相对乐观的态度。他们在策略报告中明确指出价值需要重估，预计下半年A股将逐步收复信心，重归理性。2008年A股市场应该享有的合理动态市盈率为25倍，对应上证综指点位为4200点。理由是：经济基本面不断明朗，08年上市公司盈利仍将实现30%的高增长，投资者的悲观预期将得到修正并重返理性；全球流动性收缩的冲击将减弱，中国资产吸引力不减，A股将重获成长溢价。
银河证券的观点似乎更乐观。报告中指出，用DDM模型对A股市场进行绝对估值测算，在2009年利润增长率为20%、递减至永续增长率4%和折现率9.5%的假设条件下，市场合理的估值水平应为24.7倍，所对应的上证综指为3708点，考虑到增长率和折现率的波动，则弹性估值倍数为21-29.9倍，对应上证综指3155-4492点，目前市场点位已经远远低于合理估值的下限。
有比较悲观的观点认为，输入性通胀带来企业ROE高位大幅回落，在这种情况下应该使用PB估值。虽然市场整体PE已然很接近历史低值，但对比05年998点的1.5倍历史PB水平，现在PB均值2.8过高。但东方证券不认同这种观点。研究员表示，05年的估值更多反映了股改前不确定性预期和系统性风险，08-09年同04-05年经济表现不可相提并论。04-05年固定资产投资大起大落，通胀急速过渡到通缩，工业产能过剩，ROE快速回落，但随后外需超预期增长，产能过剩的问题持续期很短，超出了市场的预期，研究机构在05年预测06-07年也是一片悲观。而08-09年投资和消费将发挥积极作用，政府调控温和同时财政政策积极，投资者在担心供给约束而不是产能过剩。占比48%和30%的服务和资源类上市公司盈利08-09年业绩稳定，目前08-09年上市公司ROE预期未出现明显回落的迹象。
A share price-earnings ratio from 44 times to 19 times "at the end of the valuation" There are far
According to statistical information WIND, calculated in accordance with the law (excluding negative, the data for the 07 annual reports), Shangzhengzengzhi 6124, when the corresponding A-share market as a whole-earnings ratio of 44 times. As of yesterday's close, the overall market price-earnings ratio has dropped to about 19 times (as a whole, excluding negative, a quarterly data for the year). Well, this is not a numerical whether "the end"? » From the broker's strategy report, it is difficult to see the exact answer, although "reasonable" frequent, but in the current complicated stock market environment, institutions seem to have caught the "plight."
19 times what a unreasonable »
Price-earnings ratio is currently on the market valuation of judgement when using the maximum level of a target. In the company made it clear that the A-share market based on long-term profitability and capital rate of return assumption that the A-share long-term reasonable price-earnings ratio of 20 times the level. But the economic down cycle, investors in the future short-term profit growth is expected to fall, but the risk will require a higher rate of return requirements, makes the reasonable valuation of the stock market lower hub.
In the company further pointed out that the economic soft landing is expected, the current market valuation (one-year dynamic price-earnings ratio of 16 times) down the level of the relatively limited space. Recent energy price increases and the future may take further measures to rationalize energy prices, is conducive to the improvement of energy efficiency and long-term inflation expectations decline, the short-term inflationary pressure and the cost of accelerated economic slowdown, making the risk of a hard landing Greatly reduced, the Chinese economy's long-term growth potential and favorable market stability. As long as there is no economic hard landing, the share of the profits from all the major sectors (petroleum, petrochemical, banking, etc.) trend, A shares overall profit in 09 to the possibility of a smaller negative growth.
Shanghai Securities expressed its relatively cautious attitude: The 2008 PE of 20 times in emerging markets relatively reasonable level, but less significantly underestimated stage. Mature markets in 08 countries was 13.6 times the average PE (not including the Nasdaq), emerging market countries is 15 times the average PE, BRIC four countries except China, the average PE of 13.8 times that of India is 16 times that of China for 20 times, A-share market and mature market, the average premium of 32%, and emerging markets, the average premium of 28%. Fellow of the 28 per cent of the explanation is: A-share listed company earnings growth on economic growth have higher sensitivity, the economic growth rate may decline slightly faster growth rate means that the profit decline, the second half of the A-share growth of this premium May be eroded. From the mature markets of the past course of development, real earnings growth of listed companies have a declining trend in inflation peaked after the fall, so the short term we may not be expected to clear the A-share "at the bottom of the valuation."
There may raise the level of valuation
Although an institution believes that the valuation level does not rule out the possibility continues to decline, but about 20 times the level was still considered to be relatively reasonable. Expected to lead to the decline in valuation levels drop, then the sharp fall in stock prices dropped to 2566 and was the lowest point, it is expected that there may be changes »
In this regard, the Orient Securities maintained a relatively optimistic attitude. Their strategy in the report clearly pointed out the need value revaluation, the second half of the A-share is expected to be gradually recovering confidence, return to rational. 2008 A-share market should be entitled to a reasonable dynamic price-earnings ratio of 25 times that of the corresponding point in the 4200 Shangzhengzongzhi points. The reasons are: the uncertain economic fundamentals, 08 listed companies will continue to achieve profit growth of 30 percent, investors are expected to be pessimistic about the amendments and return to rationality; global liquidity contraction will weaken the impact of China's assets attractive unabated , A shares will regain growth premium.
Galaxy Securities views seem to be more optimistic. Report that the use of the DDM model is the A-share market valuation estimates, in 2009 profit growth of 20 percent, reduced to sustainable growth rate of 4 percent and 9.5 percent discount rate assumptions, the market and reasonable estimates Levels should be 24.7 times that of the corresponding Shangzhengzengzhi for 3708, taking into account the growth rate and discount rate volatility, valuation multiples for flexibility 21-29.9 times, corresponding Shangzhengzengzhi 3155-4492, At the current market, far below the lower limit of reasonable valuation.
A more pessimistic view, imported inflation eased substantially high ROE business, and in these circumstances should use PB valuation. Although the overall market PE is already very close to historical low, but 05 998 points compared to 1.5 times the historical level of PB, now average 2.8 PB too high. Orient Securities but do not agree with this view. Researcher said that the valuation of 05 more shares to reflect the expectations and uncertainty before the systemic risk ,08-09, 04-05 in the same economic performance can not be compared. 04-05 big ups and downs in investment in fixed assets, rapid transition to the deflation of inflation, industrial production overcapacity, ROE rapid decline, but then-expected growth in external demand, excess capacity in a very short duration of the problem, beyond the market's expectations, research institutions in 05 Forecast for 06-07 years is a pessimistic. And 08-09 years of investment and consumption will play an active role in government regulation and control at the same time modest positive fiscal policy, as investors worried about supply constraints rather than excess capacity. Share of 48% and 30% of the services and resources listed company profits, the performance and stability 08-09, 08-09, the listed companies is expected ROE does not appear obvious signs of decline.
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