地产股“跌跌不休” 艰难寻找底部

Property stocks, "Die Die endless" difficult to find at the bottom

First quarter of this year, the whole real estate industry net profit rose 75 percent, higher than the same period last year 72 percent level, far higher than all the A-share first quarter of this year the growth rate of 20 percent. Has been released from the performance of listed companies, the real estate industry's performance is still better than the overall market level

Property stocks lead Vanke A (000002.SZ) to record low yesterday, once exploration to the historical low of 8.02 yuan. Golden Group (600383. SH, hereinafter referred to as "gold") yesterday re-formed "at the bottom of the new" 7.96 yuan, after the restoration of rights, and the group's shares have fallen nearly a maximum 2 / 3, so that fund managers The fear is that this perhaps is not the end of property stocks at the bottom.
Daishin Securities, the study shows that from last October Shangzhengzongzhi stand on the point since 6000, the index has fallen more than half, the real estate industry index fell more than 50%, or even decline in some stocks more than 70 percent. During this period, the price-earnings ratio and the real estate industry in the Shijing Shuai level of 75% and 70%, the rate of the industry even more than the price decreased.
At the same time, the first quarter of this year, the whole real estate industry net profit rose 75 percent, higher than the same period last year 72 percent level, far higher than all the A-share first quarter of this year the growth rate of 20 percent. Has been released from the performance of listed companies, the real estate industry's performance is still better than the overall market level.
And Poly Real Estate (600048. SH) in a year in the Bulletin of the medium-term performance of the notice, the company 1 to June this year, the aggregate net profit growth compared with same period last year more than 100 per cent. Although the performance is so "attractive", but because the real estate market than the company's performance has lagged behind market realities, the main city in the real estate market are in a wait-and-see atmosphere thick, and therefore the interim report will stimulate the real estate good Shares rose usher wave, is still difficult to predict.
Shenzhen Investment Company of a fund manager told reporters, Shenzhen, Guangzhou property market is the wave of price cuts affect the whole country, the major cities, including some of the early development of the market too fast two cities, now have a thin turnover of adjustment situation. The land market also encountered cold, adding to the market to adjust expectations of investors. And this year's macroeconomic situation is more severe than in previous years, the real estate industry from the tight policy will certainly continue. In this context, even with the best of the interim results, there are also difficult to pull down property stocks from the bear market in Zhuantou up capacity.

Find at the bottom

Last year, the strong performance of property stocks in the Poly Real Estate, has the highest rose to 80.5 yuan, to June 20 this year, while the lowest fell 12.06 yuan, after the restoration of rights, or still exceeds 70 percent. After a short period of time despite a small rally, but the current stock price movements, to record low is still possible.
By the end of May in Shenzhen-listed small and medium-sized groups of the Riverside (002244. SZ) only in its first day up there, and then Yindie more than, less than half a month after listing, has been below issue price of 20.31 yuan, a year Only the first small and medium-sized panels broke the stock.
So far, no one securities company said property stocks at the bottom has been formed. Daishin Securities, said that although both from the historical valuation range and is compared to mature markets, "We believe that the current level of the valuation of the real estate industry has entered a relatively reasonable region." However, they still think that, from time to cycle, the industry price movements from the first half of this year to the first half of next year, or even the whole 2009 will be a shock bottomed process. Among the many brokerage firms, this view almost be regarded as one of the most pessimistic.
In fact, a lower discount in the Hong Kong-listed mainland property stocks, are also "challenge" the price-earnings ratio lower level. As at the end of June, Bigui Yuan (02007. HK), R & F Properties (02777. HK), Beijing Capital Land (02868. HK), offshore real estate (03377. HK), SOHO China (00410. HK) listed in Hong Kong, such as the Mainland property company performance last year, calculated in accordance with the average price-earnings ratio of 11.86 times, 2.08 times the average for the Shijing Shuai.
According to 2007 Annual Report, A real estate company shares in the average price-earnings ratio of 15 times (overall), Shi Jingshuai average 2.84 times. It is precisely because of this, securities companies generally believe that the current valuation of the real estate industry has reached the level of a reasonable level.
A Hong Kong Securities analyst told reporters that in the current market environment, investors will not have too much consideration to the valuation of the so-called industry standards. Especially those who hold large land reserves of mainland developers, they face the risk of policy and funding risks, many investors have been "afraid", "We do not even know these companies at what level the price is reasonable."
However, Everbright Securities, for about two years from the medium term, the valuation is high or low level of stock prices forecast the most effective tools. In this sense, "even if the real estate sector, not the time to fully Jiacang, also from near the bottom." But they also said that if the Hong Kong market to an average of 30 per cent of the Zhe Jiashuai to request the A-share, then the A-share real estate companies currently about 15 percent of the Zhe Jiashuai seems to be not a particularly attractive investment, "but clearly has the approximate value of the bottom line . "

Temporary "cooling market" »

Even so, China Everbright Securities in a research report still admits that "We recognize that the short term to stimulate the real estate stocks rose still do not see a catalyst to the contrary, we expect the second half of the property market turnover or difficult to return to the level of the same period last year . Perhaps the end of the year, the return of the impact of bank funds, property prices will wind resurgence. "
Joint focus on tracking the securities of listed companies in Beijing real estate market sales of "less", they focus on tracking the event, in addition to the upper Vanke City and the names of Beijing in June the first half sell more than 20 sets, The other properties were below the 20 sets. These companies in Shenzhen Sales of the event "a more gloomy," the vast majority of the flats below the average daily sales Taoshuo 1 set. Only better performance of the Shanghai market, part of the event in half a month the sales of more than 50 sets of Taoshuo.
Daishin Securities, believes that since October last year, residential housing prices and shrinking turnover of the adjustment, making investors expect corporate profits a significant downward adjustment. "But in fact, observation of listed companies in the industry from the end of last year on sales data released Vanke and Poly Real Estate, 1 to May this year, the sales amount still maintained a 67.3% and 23.9% year-on-year growth." Even taking into account To the second half of last year's high base, the first real estate enterprises, the annual growth rate of 20 per cent of the profits should be a "most pessimistic expectations" For the small business sector, 15 per cent annual growth " Should also be available period. "
However, the real estate enterprises of funds has been "stretched" signs. The new lake-(600208. SH) is issuing bonds to raise 1.4 billion yuan of funds, interest rates range from 7.5 percent a year between 9 percent and an annual payment of interest, the final year of interest on the principal together with the debt service .
Such a high interest rate means that the new lake in a year-to pay 105 million to 126 million yuan of interest to maturity in 2016, the company must be prepared to around 1.5 billion yuan of funds to debt servicing.
At the same time, shares in the case of repeated record low, real estate investment of 8.0 billion of additional programmes through the SFC Fashen Wei conditional. China Merchants had the highest shares of real estate 102.89 yuan, July 2 was a record low of 13.53 yuan, so the environment, the company still insisted on the introduction of additional 8.0 billion programme, that their thirst for funds.
However, Everbright Securities remain of the view that, under normal circumstances, developers deal with the financial pressure is civil projects and the transfer of the call, "low-price selling in the market is irrational, because this will only strengthen the expected house prices continue to decline and, 15% of the decline in housing prices is not a small sum, to issue high interest rates higher than the cost of financing instruments, unless the medium-term trend is very pessimistic, otherwise difficult to see substantial price cuts. "
It seems that in most brokerage firms, the current property stocks and real estate market is facing only a temporary "cooling market", industry optimistic about the long-term trend has not changed. Zhongyuan Securities, in its second half of this year's investment strategy, even with a very poetic words in conclusion: "listen to this Lengyu, this is a cold season in early summer rather than winter has been."

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